ADOPT: A Historically Validated Light Duty Vehicle Consumer Choice Model

Aaron Brooker, Jeffrey Gonder, Sean Lopp, Jacob Ward

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaperpeer-review

15 Scopus Citations

Abstract

The Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a light-duty vehicle consumer choice and stock model supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Vehicle Technologies Office. It estimates technology improvement impacts on future U.S. light-duty vehicles sales, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas emissions. ADOPT uses techniques from the multinomial logit method and the mixed logit method to estimate vehicle sales. Specifically, it estimate sales based on the weighted value of key attributes including vehicle price, fuel cost, acceleration, range and usable volume. The average importance of several attributes changes nonlinearly across its range and changes with income. For several attributes, a distribution of importance around the average value is used to represent consumer heterogeneity. The majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims are included to fully represent the market. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy regulations are enforced. The sales feed into the ADOPT stock model. It captures key aspects for summing petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions. This includes capturing the change in vehicle miles traveled by vehicle age, the creation of new model options based on the success of existing vehicles, new vehicle option introduction rate limits, and survival rates by vehicle age. ADOPT has been extensively validated with historical sales data. It matches in key dimensions including sales by fuel economy, acceleration, price, vehicle size class, and powertrain across multiple years. A graphical user interface provides easy and efficient use. It manages the inputs, simulation, and results.

Original languageAmerican English
Number of pages10
DOIs
StatePublished - 14 Apr 2015
EventSAE 2015 World Congress and Exhibition - Detroit, United States
Duration: 21 Apr 201523 Apr 2015

Conference

ConferenceSAE 2015 World Congress and Exhibition
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityDetroit
Period21/04/1523/04/15

Bibliographical note

Posted with permission

NREL Publication Number

  • NREL/CP-5400-63608

Keywords

  • ADOPT
  • Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool
  • consumer choice
  • model
  • technology improvement

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