Alternative Wind Power Modeling Methods Using Chronological and Load Duration Curve Production Cost Models

As an intermittent resource, capturing the temporal variation in windpower is an important issue if the context of utility production cost modeling. Many of the production cost models use a method that creates a cumulative probability distribution that is outside the time domain. The purpose of this report is to examine two production cost models that represent the two major model types:chronological and load duration curve models. This report is part of the ongoing research undertaken by the Wind Technology Division of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in utility modeling and wind system integration. The author would like to gratefully acknowledge the encouragement and support of Jack Cadogan of the U.S. Department of Energy and AI Miller of Problem SolversInternational. Francis Chapman at the Environmental Defense Fund, and Chok Pang and Granger Tam at the P+ Corporation provided a wealth of modeling assistance.