Analysis of the Transition to Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and the Potential Hydrogen Energy Infrastructure Requirements

Achieving a successful transition to hydrogen-powered vehicles in the U.S. automotive market will require strong and sustained commitment by hydrogen producers, vehicle manufacturers, transporters and retailers, consumers, and governments. The challenges include developing and refining a new and different power-train technology, building a supporting fuel infrastructure, creating a market for newand unfamiliar vehicles, and achieving economies of scale in vehicle production while providing an attractive selection of vehicle makes and models for car-buyers. However, the potential rewards to the economy, environment, and national security are immense. Such a profound market transformation will require careful planning and strong, consistent policy incentives. To ensure that thesealternative market penetration scenarios took into consideration the thinking of the automobile manufacturers, energy companies, industrial hydrogen suppliers, and others from the private sector, DOE held several stakeholder meetings to explain the analyses, describe the models, and solicit comments about the methods, assumptions, and preliminary results. The final scenarios attempt to reflectthe collective judgment of the participants in these meetings. However, they should not be interpreted as having been explicitly endorsed by DOE or any of the stakeholders participating.