Assessment of Cloud Mask Forecasts from the WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System: Preprint

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are important tools used by government agencies and the renewable energy enterprise to forecast solar radiation. Cloud prediction, a key process of NWP models, has the highest impact on the accuracy of solar forecasting. This study uses satellite observations from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) to evaluate the cloud mask forecast by the WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (WRF-Solar EPS). Preliminary analysis of the data in 2018 demonstrates the need of further improvement in predicting thin and low-level clouds. The information obtained from this work will be used to enhance the WRF-Solar EPS in reproducing the cloud field over the contiguous U.S. and reducing solar forecasting errors.