Beyond Expected Values Evolving Metrics for Resource Adequacy Assessment: Article No. C5

Derek Stenclik, Gord Stephen, Wesley Cole, Aidan Tuohy, Aaron Bloom, Armando Figueroa Acevedo

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Resource adequacy analysis quantifies the likelihood of capacity shortfall on a power system in a probabilistic manner. Using a combination of statistical techniques and power system fundamentals, the analysis typically evaluates hundreds or thousands of stochastic random samples (replications) of varying load, generator outages, variable renewable energy availability, and other aspects of power system uncertainty. In this range of uncertainty, there are - at times - periods where the power system's available resources are insufficient to meet system demand, referred to as a shortfall event. Today's power systems' rapidly evolving generation mix is changing the types of data needed by system planners and regulators, which can often render traditional resource adequacy metrics insufficient for ensuring resource adequacy for tomorrow's grid. In this paper we provide a critical assessment of traditional measures of shortfall risk in power systems, discussing their shortcomings and how they compare to metrics used in other domains. From this analysis we propose four steps forward for improving power system resource adequacy risk metrics in the future.
Original languageAmerican English
Number of pages12
JournalCIGRE Science and Engineering
StatePublished - 2023

Bibliographical note

Part of issue including best of papers from CIGRE Paris Session, 28 August - 2 September 2022, Paris, France

NREL Publication Number

  • NREL/JA-6A40-81639


  • loss of load expectation
  • probabilistic analysis
  • reliability
  • resource adequacy


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