BSM Sensitivity Analysis and Meta-Modeling Next Steps

Research output: NRELPresentation


We performed a global sensitivity analysis of the Bioenergy Scenario Model (BSM), using Elementary Effects analysis to identify potentially influential factors, with a focus on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production. The process was iterative and informed key model changes and updates over the course of the study in addition to identifying the key model inputs that affect the cumulative production of SAF from the present through 2050. More work will be performed to gain deeper insight into the sensitivity of individual pathways as part of our larger efforts to develop a reduced-form version of the BSM.
Original languageAmerican English
Number of pages19
StatePublished - 2023

NREL Publication Number

  • NREL/PR-6A20-88045


  • Bioenergy Scenario Model
  • biofuels
  • BSM
  • elementary effects
  • global sensitivity analysis
  • SAF
  • sustainable aviation fuel


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