Chapter 1: Insights From Over 10 Years of Cellulosic Biofuel Modeling

TBDWe present insights gained from over 10 years of system dynamic modeling of the cellulose to biofuel industry in the United States. We use a publicly-available Biomass Scenario Model to explore the impact of logistics system, economies of scale, and shared industrial learning on the developing cellulose-to-biofuels industry in the United States. One theme from this study as well as from the work performed over the last decade is the importance of the movement of the system toward maturation, both in terms of the supply system and the conversion processes. Mature processes imply lower investment risk, better yields, and better process economics.