Comparison of Vehicle Choice Models

The U.S. Department of Energy's Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) analysis team uses projections of market penetration of advanced-technology powertrains in light-duty vehicles to assess potential energy and emissions impacts and to understand how future conditions such as fuel prices, policies, and technology advancement might influence consumer adoption of these powertrain technologies.VTO has funded the development of several consumer vehicle choice models to give such projections. Five of these models were compared by running each of them on two scenario cases with, to the extent allowed by the diversity of the models, mutually agreed upon inputs for critical parameters such as future fuel costs, technology prices and efficiencies, and infrastructure growth. The models gave different market share projections. Comparing some of the features and algorithms used in the different models reveals some reasons to expect different projections and highlights the different approaches taken by model developers.This document describes the inputs used to define the two scenarios, the market shares projected by each model for these scenarios, and some of the similarities and differences between the five vehicle choice models. Finally, some recommendations are given for further work to elucidate differences in model algorithms and sensitivities.