Diagnosing Model Errors in Simulation of Solar Radiation on Inclined Surfaces

Transposition models have been widely used in the solar energy industry to simulate solar radiation on inclined PV panels. Following numerous studies comparing the performance of transposition models, this paper aims to understand the quantitative uncertainty in the state-of-the-art transposition models and the sources leading to the uncertainty. Our results show significant differences between two highly used isotropic transposition models with one substantially underestimating the diffuse plane-of-array (POA) irradiances when diffuse radiation is perfectly isotropic. In the empirical transposition models, the selection of empirical coefficients and land surface albedo can both result in uncertainty in the output. This study can be used as a guide for future development of physics-based transposition models.