Distribution of Wind Power Forecast Errors from Operational Systems

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Abstract

Wind power forecasting is one important tool in the integration of large amounts of renewable generation into the electricity system. Wind power forecasts from operational systems are not perfect, and thus, an understanding of the forecast error distributions can be important in system operations. In this work, we examine the errors from operational wind power forecasting systems, both for asingle wind plant and for an entire interconnection. The resulting error distributions are compared with the normal distribution and the distribution obtained from the persistence forecasting model at multiple timescales. A model distribution is fit to the operational system forecast errors and the potential impact on system operations highlighted through the generation of forecast confidenceintervals.
Original languageAmerican English
Number of pages6
StatePublished - 2011
Event10th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants - Aarhus, Denmark
Duration: 25 Oct 201126 Oct 2011

Conference

Conference10th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants
CityAarhus, Denmark
Period25/10/1126/10/11

NREL Publication Number

  • NREL/CP-5500-52568

Keywords

  • distribution functions
  • forecasting
  • power systems
  • stochastic systems
  • wind power generation

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