Abstract
Wind power forecasting is one important tool in the integration of large amounts of renewable generation into the electricity system. Wind power forecasts from operational systems are not perfect, and thus, an understanding of the forecast error distributions can be important in system operations. In this work, we examine the errors from operational wind power forecasting systems, both for asingle wind plant and for an entire interconnection. The resulting error distributions are compared with the normal distribution and the distribution obtained from the persistence forecasting model at multiple timescales. A model distribution is fit to the operational system forecast errors and the potential impact on system operations highlighted through the generation of forecast confidenceintervals.
Original language | American English |
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Number of pages | 6 |
State | Published - 2011 |
Event | 10th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants - Aarhus, Denmark Duration: 25 Oct 2011 → 26 Oct 2011 |
Conference
Conference | 10th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants |
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City | Aarhus, Denmark |
Period | 25/10/11 → 26/10/11 |
NREL Publication Number
- NREL/CP-5500-52568
Keywords
- distribution functions
- forecasting
- power systems
- stochastic systems
- wind power generation