Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

Jeffery Freedman; Andrew Stern; Cathy Finley; James Wilczak; Stanley Benjamin; Melinda Marquis; Catherine Clark; Joel Cline; Kirsten Orwig

Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

Jeffery Freedman, Andrew Stern, Cathy Finley, James Wilczak, Stanley Benjamin, Melinda Marquis, Catherine Clark, Joel Cline, Kirsten Orwig

Building Technologies and Science Center

Research output: Contribution to conference › Paper

Abstract

The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S.Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh(HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

Original language	American English
Number of pages	8
State	Published - 2012
Event	11th Annual International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants Conference - Lisbon, Portugal Duration: 13 Nov 2012 → 15 Nov 2012

Conference

Conference	11th Annual International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants Conference
City	Lisbon, Portugal
Period	13/11/12 → 15/11/12

NREL Publication Number

NREL/CP-5500-56258

Keywords

economic value
forecasts
grid operations
measurements
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)
NREL
numerical weather prediction
wind variability

Access to Document

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/56258.pdf

Cite this

Freedman, J., Stern, A., Finley, C., Wilczak, J., Benjamin, S., Marquis, M., Clark, C., Cline, J., & Orwig, K. (2012). Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint. Paper presented at 11th Annual International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants Conference, Lisbon, Portugal. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/56258.pdf

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title = "Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint",

abstract = "The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S.Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh(HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.",

keywords = "economic value, forecasts, grid operations, measurements, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), NREL, numerical weather prediction, wind variability",

author = "Jeffery Freedman and Andrew Stern and Cathy Finley and James Wilczak and Stanley Benjamin and Melinda Marquis and Catherine Clark and Joel Cline and Kirsten Orwig",

year = "2012",

language = "American English",

note = "11th Annual International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants Conference ; Conference date: 13-11-2012 Through 15-11-2012",

}

Freedman, J, Stern, A, Finley, C, Wilczak, J, Benjamin, S, Marquis, M, Clark, C, Cline, J & Orwig, K 2012, 'Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint', Paper presented at 11th Annual International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants Conference, Lisbon, Portugal, 13/11/12 - 15/11/12. <https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/56258.pdf>

Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint. / Freedman, Jeffery; Stern, Andrew; Finley, Cathy et al.
2012. Paper presented at 11th Annual International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants Conference, Lisbon, Portugal.

Research output: Contribution to conference › Paper

TY - CONF

T1 - Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

AU - Freedman, Jeffery

AU - Stern, Andrew

AU - Finley, Cathy

AU - Wilczak, James

AU - Benjamin, Stanley

AU - Marquis, Melinda

AU - Clark, Catherine

AU - Cline, Joel

AU - Orwig, Kirsten

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S.Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh(HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

AB - The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S.Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh(HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

KW - economic value

KW - forecasts

KW - grid operations

KW - measurements

KW - National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

KW - NREL

KW - numerical weather prediction

KW - wind variability

M3 - Paper

T2 - 11th Annual International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants Conference

Y2 - 13 November 2012 through 15 November 2012

ER -

Freedman J, Stern A, Finley C, Wilczak J, Benjamin S, Marquis M et al.. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint. 2012. Paper presented at 11th Annual International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants Conference, Lisbon, Portugal.

Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

Abstract

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NREL Publication Number

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