Evaluating the Economic Parity of Solar for Industrial Process Heat

Industrial process heat (IPH) uses nearly three-quarters of U.S. manufacturing sector fuel energy, with most of IPH powered by fossil fuel combustion. Appreciably reducing industrial CO₂ emissions will necessarily involve addressing IPH demand. Solar photovoltaics (PV) have contributed to the changing fuel mix of electricity generation in the United States, but on-site use of solar energy in the manufacturing sector remains insignificant. To understand the economic feasibility of IPH fuel switching, we develop an open-source process parity framework to identify conditions when solar process heat technologies can reach cost parity with an incumbent fossil fuel combustion technology. Building a case study that reflects common IPH demands and applicable solar technologies across several locations in the United States, we generalize the relationship between key parameters of solar resource, investment and fuel prices. We evaluate the use of solar thermal (ST) and PV connected electric boilers to partially substitute natural gas boilers in a brewery. Cost parity is not achieved in any analysis location for current solar system costs and fuel prices. Los Angeles County is most likely to achieve cost parity due to the higher fuel prices compared to other counties.