Evolution of Scenario Generation Capabilities in the ExaSGD Project

Research output: NRELPoster


High-fidelity renewable energy scenarios and rare-event high-impact contingencies are essential for modeling operations and infrastructure expansion of the next generation power grids using exascale computing resources. As the ExaSGD project progressed, our capabilities for generating scenarios for modeling wind power output at multiple wind farms significantly improved, evolving from the use of independent random perturbations to importance sampling-based techniques capturing representative spatial-temporal relations. Contingency generation also improved, evolving from standard N-1 techniques to probabilistic models of infrastructure damage resulting from extreme weather events. We review the developments in the realistic intermittent-energy scenario forecasting and extreme-event contingency creation as the ExaSGD project progressed and discuss the future work in these areas.
Original languageAmerican English
StatePublished - 2023

Publication series

NamePresented at the 2023 Exascale Computing Project Annual Meeting, 17-20 January 2023, Houston, Texas

NREL Publication Number

  • NREL/PO-2C00-84992


  • economic dispatch
  • exascale computing
  • high wind penetration
  • optimization under uncertainty
  • stochastic programming


Dive into the research topics of 'Evolution of Scenario Generation Capabilities in the ExaSGD Project'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this