Extrapolation of Extreme and Fatigue Loads Using Probabilistic Methods

Probabilistic methods were used to determine the long-term extreme and fatigue loads of two different 1.5 MW wind turbine designs. Over the past decade, probabilistic methods for wind turbine design have acquired increasing levels of interest in bothe the research and industrial community. This interest has largely been driven by the desire to replace outdated empirical-based design models withmore physically relevant models that can be accurately applied to the next generation of wind turbine designs. This study further extends previous works through further examination of moment-based probability methods, as well as the effects of using a joint distribution of mean wind speed and turbulence level, and the statistical uncertainty of moment-based methods, introducing refinements suchas compensating for non-zero cyclic midpoints in fatigue calculations, application of a threshold technique and full integration of all probable operating conditions.