Geothermal Uncertainty Representation in reV: the Renewable Energy Potential Model

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper


We present a preliminary methodology for including geothermal resource uncertainty into the Renewable Energy Potential model, which estimates potential capacity and costs on a gridded surface at the national scale. The uncertainty outputs characterize the 10th, 50th and 90th percentile for geothermal resources using two energy capacity estimation equations. We then present a method and results that demonstrate how other geologic data layers, which may be indicative of permeability, can be used to inform the mean and standard deviation of the geothermal capacity. We demonstrate how the mean and standard deviation can be defined or partially informed by using collocated regression estimates and estimate errors, respectively . These regression results are from 36 observed geothermal power plants in the Great Basin region and are also used to benchmark the P10-P90 calculations.
Original languageAmerican English
Number of pages10
StatePublished - 2024
EventStanford Geothermal Workshop - Stanford, CA
Duration: 12 Feb 202414 Feb 2024


ConferenceStanford Geothermal Workshop
CityStanford, CA

NREL Publication Number

  • NREL/CP-5700-88560


  • exclusions
  • geospatial
  • geothermal resource data
  • grid infrastructure
  • uncertainty


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