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How Wrong Can the Operational AEP Uncertainty Estimate Be When We Ignore the Correlations Between the Uncertainty Components?
Nicola Bodini
, Mike Optis
National Wind Technology Center
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NREL
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Engineering
Annual Energy Production
100%
Wind Resource
50%
Compressed Air Motors
37%
Reanalysis
25%
Monte Carlo Approach
25%
Operational Data
25%
Industry Standard
25%
Energy Engineering
12%
Energy Production
12%
Wind Power
12%
Data Point
12%
Measurement Uncertainty
12%
Conventional Technique
12%
Speed Data
12%
Production Data
12%
Earth and Planetary Sciences
Energy Production
100%
Wind Resources
44%
Compressed Air Motors
33%
Wind Velocity
22%
Wind Power
22%
Wind Measurement
11%
Resource Assessment
11%
Production Data
11%
Agricultural and Biological Sciences
Annuals
100%
Compressed Air Motors
33%
Wind Power
22%
Wind Speed
22%
Europeans
11%