Impact Analysis of Transitioning to Heat Pump Rooftop Units for the U.S. Commercial Building Stock: Preprint

20% of the U.S. commercial building sector's energy usage is from on-site combustion of fossil fuels for heating. Decarbonization will require electrification of these systems to meet climate goals, often by transitioning to heat pumps. Rooftop units (RTU) are the most prominent commercial building HVAC system type and should therefore be prioritized for decarbonization solutions. However, there is limited understanding of the impact on emissions that considers regional electricity generation methods, as well as the impact of other heat pump intricacies such as the effects of temperature on capacity/efficiency, defrost operation, realistic sizing methodologies, and supplementary heating. This study explores the effects of transitioning all conventional RTUs to high-performance heat pump RTUs for the U.S. commercial building stock. The analysis is performed using ComStock, DOE's calibrated model of the U.S. commercial building stock developed by NREL. Results show 9% and 17% reductions in stock aggregate energy consumption and GHG emissions, respectively. Furthermore, average heat pump operational details are presented by state. This analysis will help inform the transition to heat pump RTUs for the U.S. commercial building stock.