Impact Analysis of Transitioning to Heat Pump Rooftop Units for the U.S. Commercial Building Stock

Twenty percent (25%) of the energy consumed by the U.S. commercial building sector is from on-site combustion of fossil fuels for space heating. Part of decarbonizing U.S. energy systems to meet climate initiatives will require electrification of space heating equipment, often by transitioning to heat pumps. Rooftop units (RTU) are the most prominent commercial building HVAC system type and should therefore be prioritized for electrification solutions. However, there is limited understanding of the impact on emissions when considering regional electricity generation methods, as well as the impact of ambient temperature on capacity and efficiency, defrost operation, realistic sizing methodologies, and supplementary heating on overall heat pump performance. This study explores the effects of transitioning all installed, existing RTUs to high- performance heat pump RTUs for the U.S. commercial building stock. The analysis is performed using ComStock(TM), the U.S. Department of Energy's calibrated model of the U.S. commercial building stock. Results show 10% and 9% reductions in stock aggregate energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. This analysis will help inform the transition to heat pump RTUs for the U.S. commercial building stock.