Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Systems in Global and Regional Scenarios

Seleshi Yalew, Michelle van Vliet, David Gernaat, Fulco Ludwig, Ariel Miara, Chan Park, Edward Byers, Enrica De Cian, Franziska Piontek, Gokul Iyer, Ioanna Mouratiadou, James Glynn, Mohamad Hejazi, Olivier Dessens, Pedro Rochedo, Robert Pietzcker, Roberto Schaeffer, Shinichiro Fujimori, Shouro Dasgupta, Silvana MimaSilvia da Silva, Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Robert Vautard, Detlef van Vuuren

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

187 Scopus Citations

Abstract

Although our knowledge of climate change impacts on energy systems has increased substantially over the past few decades, there remains a lack of comprehensive overview of impacts across spatial scales. Here, we analyse results of 220 studies projecting climate impacts on energy systems globally and at the regional scale. Globally, a potential increase in cooling demand and decrease in heating demand can be anticipated, in contrast to slight decreases in hydropower and thermal energy capacity. Impacts at the regional scale are more mixed and relatively uncertain across regions, but strongest impacts are reported for South Asia and Latin America. Our assessment shows that climate impacts on energy systems at regional and global scales are uncertain due partly to the wide range of methods and non-harmonized datasets used. For a comprehensive assessment of climate impacts on energy, we propose a consistent multi-model assessment framework to support regional-to-global-scale energy planning.

Original languageAmerican English
Pages (from-to)794-802
Number of pages9
JournalNature Energy
Volume5
Issue number10
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Oct 2020

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.

NREL Publication Number

  • NREL/JA-6A20-74242

Keywords

  • climate change vulnerability
  • energy demand
  • energy supply
  • literature review
  • modeling
  • multi-model assessments

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