Impacts of Dispatch Strategies and Forecast Errors on the Economics of Behind-the-Meter PV-Battery Systems

Brian Mirletz, Nicholas Laws

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Abstract

To assess the economic value of batteries in hybrid PV-battery systems, one must create a dispatch profile for the battery. Many analyses of battery value assume perfect forecasts of PV generation and load, determining an upper limit on the value of the battery. Prior work that accounts for forecast uncer- tainty often does so in the context of a single dispatch algorithm, which does not provide a baseline for comparison. Furthermore, when multiple dispatch algorithms are assessed with uncertainty, the benefits considered are for diesel generation in a microgrid, not retail rate savings. This work addresses the gaps in the literature by comparing the performance of both heuristic and optimal dispatch algorithms for retail rate savings under forecast uncertainty, and provides comparisons of the robustness of these algorithms and their associated estimates of economic value. We find that using a perfect forecast can overestimate the value of hybrid PV-battery systems between 1% and 8% compared to the reality of using a day-ahead forecast, depending on the dispatch algorithm used. Thus, accounting for forecast uncertainty in system design and analysis will significantly improve the accuracy of modeled system values.
Original languageAmerican English
Number of pages5
DOIs
StatePublished - 2023
Event50th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference - San Juan, Puerto Rico
Duration: 11 Jun 202316 Jun 2023

Conference

Conference50th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference
CitySan Juan, Puerto Rico
Period11/06/2316/06/23

Bibliographical note

See NREL/CP-7A40-86194 for preprint

NREL Publication Number

  • NREL/CP-7A40-88880

Keywords

  • batteries
  • battery dispatch
  • behind-the-meter
  • SAM
  • solar plus storage
  • System Advisor Model

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