Integrated Analysis of Transportation Demand Pathway Options for Hydrogen Production, Storage, and Distribution

Directed Technologies, Inc. has begun the development of a computer model with the goal of providing guidance to the Hydrogen Program Office regarding the most cost effective use of limited resources to meet national energy security and environmental goals through the use of hydrogen as a major energy carrier. The underlying assumption of this programmatic pathway model is that government andindustry must work together to bring clean hydrogen energy devices into the marketplace. Industry cannot provide the long term resources necessary to overcome technological, regulatory, institutional and perceptual barriers to the use of hydrogen as an energy carrier, and government cannot provide the substantial investments required to develop hydrogen energy products and increased hydrogenproduction capacity. The computer model recognizes this necessary government/industry partnership by determining the early investments required by government to bring hydrogen energy end uses within the time horizon and profitability criteria of industry, and by estimating the subsequent investments required by industry. The model then predicts the cost/benefit ratio for government, based oncontributions of each hydrogen project to meeting societal goals, and it predicts the return on investment for industry. Sensitivity analyses with respect to various government investments such as hydrogen research and development and demonstration projects will then provide guidance as to the most cost effective mix of government actions. The intial model considers the hydrogen tranportationmarket, but this programmatic pathway methodology will be extended to other market segments in the future.