TY - GEN

T1 - Lifetime Prediction for Degradation of Solar Mirrors using Step-Stress Accelerated Testing (Presentation)

T2 - NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

AU - NREL, null

PY - 2011

Y1 - 2011

N2 - This research is to illustrate the use of statistical inference techniques in order to quantify the uncertainty surrounding reliability estimates in a step-stress accelerated degradation testing (SSADT) scenario. SSADT can be used when a researcher is faced with a resource-constrained environment, e.g., limits on chamber time or on the number of units to test. We apply the SSADT methodology to adegradation experiment involving concentrated solar power (CSP) mirrors and compare the results to a more traditional multiple accelerated testing paradigm. Specifically, our work includes: (1) designing a durability testing plan for solar mirrors (3M's new improved silvered acrylic 'Solar Reflector Film (SFM) 1100') through the ultra-accelerated weathering system (UAWS), (2) definingdegradation paths of optical performance based on the SSADT model which is accelerated by high UV-radiant exposure, and (3) developing service lifetime prediction models for solar mirrors using advanced statistical inference. We use the method of least squares to estimate the model parameters and this serves as the basis for the statistical inference in SSADT. Several quantities of interest canbe estimated from this procedure, e.g., mean-time-to-failure (MTTF) and warranty time. The methods allow for the estimation of quantities that may be of interest to the domain scientists.

AB - This research is to illustrate the use of statistical inference techniques in order to quantify the uncertainty surrounding reliability estimates in a step-stress accelerated degradation testing (SSADT) scenario. SSADT can be used when a researcher is faced with a resource-constrained environment, e.g., limits on chamber time or on the number of units to test. We apply the SSADT methodology to adegradation experiment involving concentrated solar power (CSP) mirrors and compare the results to a more traditional multiple accelerated testing paradigm. Specifically, our work includes: (1) designing a durability testing plan for solar mirrors (3M's new improved silvered acrylic 'Solar Reflector Film (SFM) 1100') through the ultra-accelerated weathering system (UAWS), (2) definingdegradation paths of optical performance based on the SSADT model which is accelerated by high UV-radiant exposure, and (3) developing service lifetime prediction models for solar mirrors using advanced statistical inference. We use the method of least squares to estimate the model parameters and this serves as the basis for the statistical inference in SSADT. Several quantities of interest canbe estimated from this procedure, e.g., mean-time-to-failure (MTTF) and warranty time. The methods allow for the estimation of quantities that may be of interest to the domain scientists.

KW - concentrating solar power

KW - CSP

KW - reflectors

KW - service lifetime prediction

KW - step-stress accelerated degradation test (SSADT)

M3 - Presentation

T3 - Presented at the 2011 Workshop on Accelerated Stress Testing and Reliability, 28-30 September 2011, San Francisco, California

ER -