Light-Duty Vehicle Attribute Projections (Years 2015-2030)

This report describes the approach and results associated with projecting vehicle attributes for future light-duty vehicle classes and powertrains, from year 2015 to 2030. The focus is the California light-duty vehicle market and the projected attributes include fuel economy, acceleration, driving range (total and all-electric), and manufacturer suggested retail price from year 2015 to year 2030. Attributes are weighted by California vehicle sales, which are projected using a historically validated consumer choice model - the Automotive Deployment Option Projection Tool (ADOPT) - integrated with a modeling framework that simulates vehicle fuel economy, cost, and acceleration performance while optimizing vehicle components - the Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator model (FASTSim). Both models were developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and have been adapted to represent the future California light-duty vehicle market for the present report. The analysis includes several scenarios pertaining to electricity and, essentially, electric vehicle demand in California, as established by the Energy Commission. Results suggest that implementation of certain policies, such as the Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards, impacts vehicle attribute projections. The results also show that standards and policy targets are not exclusively met by changes in vehicle attributes, but also through shifts in market demand and sales for certain vehicle powertrains.