Long-Term Carbon Intensity Reduction Potential of K-12 School Buildings in the United States: Article No. 112802

School buildings have a great potential for carbon emission reduction since their annual emission is about 72 million metric tons. Currently, more than 30% of school buildings were built before 1960 and are underperforming. To effectively reduce carbon emissions via school building retrofits, it is critical for policymakers to understand the carbon intensity reduction potential of retrofitting school buildings in different regions. Hence, this study develops a method to comprehensively assess the long-term carbon intensity reduction potential of aggregated commercial buildings on a county-by-county basis in the continental U.S. We apply this method to the K-12 school buildings including primary and secondary school buildings. This paper predicts the carbon intensity reduction potential of K-12 school buildings with eight building retrofit measures from 2022 to 2050 in the continental U.S. The results reveal several interesting findings: (1) In the approximately 3,000 counties of the U.S. from 2022 to 2050, the carbon intensity reduction potential of retrofitting K-12 school buildings in each county ranges from 0.41 kg/m2 to 40.00 kg/m2. (2) Even in the same climate zone, the trends of carbon intensity reduction potential from 2022 to 2050 are different depending on their electricity sources. For example, in a hot and humid climate zone, the carbon intensity reduction potential in Florida will decrease from 2044 to 2048. However, in Mississippi, the carbon intensity reduction potential from 2044 to 2046 will increase due to the termination of the nuclear energy usage. (3) Generally, reducing lighting power density leads to more carbon intensity reduction in most states, but it might not be applicable for states with high clean energy penetration, such as Washington.