Market and Modeling Uncertainty in Distributed Solar Deployment Projections: A Multi-Model Comparison

Distributed solar photovoltaic (DPV) systems that generate energy in behind-the-meter (BTM) applications for residential, commercial, and other end-user sectors are a growing and contentious development in the U.S. power system. While less than one percent of all electricity generation in the United States came from DPV systems in 2016 (EIA, April 2017), this technology has experienced rapid growth in recent years and, as of the start of 2017, over 1.3 million DPV systems had been installed (Munsell 2017). Thus, projecting the feasibility and potential timing of mass-market breakout of distributed solar is increasingly pertinent - yet projections remain highly uncertain.