Medium-/Heavy-Duty Vehicle Choice Modeling in ADOPT

The medium- and heavy-duty (MDHD) vehicle benefits analysis performed for the Vehicle Technologies Office ( VTO) has historically assumed that alternative powertrains achieve the same performance as their conventional counterparts. The corresponding vehicle choice modeling has thus focused on the economics of up-front vehicle cost and future fuel expenditures as differentiators. However, performance is becoming more of a decision factor, as manufacturers develop alternative powertrains touted as having superior power, acceleration, and hill-climbing capability. Tesla’s “ Semi” battery electric semi-trailer truck and Toyota’s “Project Portal” fuel cell electric drayage truck are examples of future alternative vehicles with enhanced performance. This project will enhance and apply the Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool (ADOPT) model to assess the impact of performance differences on new technology adoption in the commercial vehicle market (and provide these results for use in the MDHD benefits analysis). ADOPT estimates vehicle sales based on the most consumer-valued attributes, including price, fuel cost, acceleration, range, refuel time, and size, while considering the influence of existing regulations/incentives and other market conditions. To instill confidence in its results, ADOPT has been extensively validated by comparing the tool’s sales estimates (given technology and market conditions in multiple past years and locations) to corresponding actual historic vehicle sales data, and ensuring that the results match in multiple different dimensions.