Abstract
Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different timehorizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate thequality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.
Original language | American English |
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Number of pages | 10 |
State | Published - 2013 |
Event | 3rd International Workshop on Integration of Solar Power into Power Systems - London, England Duration: 21 Oct 2013 → 22 Oct 2013 |
Conference
Conference | 3rd International Workshop on Integration of Solar Power into Power Systems |
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City | London, England |
Period | 21/10/13 → 22/10/13 |
NREL Publication Number
- NREL/CP-5000-60142
Keywords
- grid integration
- ramps
- response surface
- sensitivity analysis
- solar forecasting
- uncertainty
- variability