Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

Jie Zhang

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Abstract

Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different timehorizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate thequality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.
Original languageAmerican English
Number of pages10
StatePublished - 2013
Event3rd International Workshop on Integration of Solar Power into Power Systems - London, England
Duration: 21 Oct 201322 Oct 2013

Conference

Conference3rd International Workshop on Integration of Solar Power into Power Systems
CityLondon, England
Period21/10/1322/10/13

NREL Publication Number

  • NREL/CP-5000-60142

Keywords

  • grid integration
  • ramps
  • response surface
  • sensitivity analysis
  • solar forecasting
  • uncertainty
  • variability

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