Modeling of Uncertainties in Major Drivers in U.S. Electricity Markets: Preprint

    Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper


    This paper presents information on the Stochastic Energy Deployment System (SEDS) model. DOE and NREL are developing this new model, intended to address many of the shortcomings of the current suite of energy models. Once fully built, the salient qualities of SEDS will include full probabilistic treatment of the major uncertainties in national energy forecasts; code compactness for desktopapplication; user-friendly interface for a reasonably trained analyst; run-time within limits acceptable for quick-response analysis; choice of detailed or aggregate representations; and transparency of design, code, and assumptions. Moreover, SEDS development will be increasingly collaborative, as DOE and NREL will be coordinating with multiple national laboratories and other institutions,making SEDS nearly an 'open source' project. The collaboration will utilize the best expertise on specific sectors and problems, and also allow constant examination and review of the model. This paper outlines the rationale for this project and a description of its alpha version, as well as some example results. It also describes some of the expected development efforts in SEDS.
    Original languageAmerican English
    Number of pages21
    StatePublished - 2006
    Event26th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference - Ann Arbor, Michigan
    Duration: 24 Sep 200627 Sep 2006


    Conference26th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference
    CityAnn Arbor, Michigan

    NREL Publication Number

    • NREL/CP-620-40451


    • annual energy outlook
    • electric sector
    • generating capacity
    • installed capacity
    • regional disaggregation
    • SEDS
    • stochastic energy deployment system model
    • uncertainty


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