Modeling Sensitivities to the 20% Wind Scenario Report with the WinDS Model

In May 2008, DOE published '20% Wind Energy by 2030', a report which describes the costs and benefits of producing 20% of the nation's projected electricity demand in 2030 from wind technology. The total electricity system cost resulting from this scenario was modestly higher than a scenario in which no additional wind was installed after 2006. NREL's Wind Deployment System (WinDS) model was usedto support this analysis. With its 358 regions, explicit treatment of transmission expansion, onshore siting considerations, shallow- and deep-water wind resources, 2030 outlook, explicit financing assumptions, endogenous learning, and stochastic treatment of wind resource variability, WinDS is unique in the level of detail it can bring to this analysis. For the 20% Wind Energy by 2030 analysis,the group chose various model structures (such as the ability to wheel power within an interconnect), and the wind industry agreed on a variety of model inputs (such as the cost of transmission or new wind turbines). For this paper, the analysis examined the sensitivity of the results to variations in those input values and model structure choices. These included wind cost and performanceimprovements over time, seasonal/diurnal wind resource variations, transmission access and costs, siting costs, conventional fuel cost trajectories, and conventional capital costs.