Opportunities for Green Hydrogen Production with Land-Based Wind in the United States: Article No. 117595

Hydrogen (H2) is an efficient energy carrier and storage mechanism that can supply both stationary and transport energy demand. Rapidly declining renewable energy generation costs; technology innovations in wind, solar, battery storage, and electrolysis; and a global push for more sustainable and secure energy have driven increased interest in green H2 production. In this study, we develop an H2 scenario analysis tool to assist in rapid, high-resolution insights into future, green H2 pathways to achieve policy goals and market competitiveness. Using this tool, we estimate H2 production and costs for U.S., off-grid scenarios given varying policy and cost scenarios from 2025-2035. Results indicate that achieving economically competitive green H2 production (below $2/kg) is possible in 2030 with no policy incentives (one site achieves this target), while increasing policy support to include wind and green H2 production tax credits enables widespread economic viability sooner, with sub-$2/kg LCOH targets achieved by 2025 and 51.7% of sites achieving this target by 2035. Maximizing policy support through prevailing wage and apprenticeship credit multipliers enable widespread economic viability, including sub-$1/kg of green H2 by 2025 and even negative pricing by 2035. Regions with lowest LCOH values correspond to high wind resource areas and capacity factors. Achieving decarbonization goals with green H2 depends on technology cost reductions and policy support, with a maximum average LCOH reduction of $3.10 between no and maximum policy support scenarios, and a maximum average LCOH reduction of $5.86 between current, conservative technology costs and 2035 projected technology cost assumptions.