Performance and Cost Projections for Advanced Wind Turbines

This paper identifies two possible wind turbine system architectures that represent the next generation of horizontal axis designs, targeted for the mid-1990s. Estimates of the effects of projected design refinements on energy capture and cost are used to calculate cost-of-energy (COE) estimates. Two basic design philosophies are presented: the first represents a system using power electronics toallow variable speed operation and the second represents an optimized stall-controlled rotor. Both concepts take; advantage of recent technological innovations including advanced airfoils; innovative control strategies; drive-train improvements; and site-dependent system optimization strategies, such as tall towers for sites with strong vertical wind shears. Our investigation indicates thatthese design improvements will increase energy capture about 40% to 50% with a corresponding negligible impact on cost, when compared with current state-of-the-art wind systems. These performance improvements result in COE estimates ranging; between $0.03 and $0.06/kWh for the mid-1990s for sites with annual average hub-height wind speeds from 8.5 mps to 6.8 mps.