Photovoltaic Degradation Risk: Preprint

The ability to accurately predict power delivery over the course of time is of vital importance to the growth of the photovoltaic (PV) industry. Important cost drivers include the efficiency with which sunlight is converted into power, how this relationship changes over time, and the uncertainty in this prediction. An accurate quantification of power decline over time, also known as degradationrate, is essential to all stakeholders - utility companies, integrators, investors, and researchers alike. In this paper we use a statistical approach based on historical data to quantify degradation rates, discern trends and quantify risks related to measurement uncertainties, number of measurements and methodologies.