Potential Air Quality Benefits from Increased Solar Photovoltaic Electricity Generation in the Eastern United States

We evaluate how fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and precursor emissions could be reduced if 17% of electricity generation was replaced with solar photovoltaics (PV) in the Eastern United States. Electricity generation is simulated using GridView, then used to scale electricity-sector emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and nitrogen oxides (NO_X) from an existing gridded inventory of air emissions. This approach offers a novel method to leverage advanced electricity simulations with state-of-the-art emissions inventories, without necessitating recalculation of emissions for each facility. The baseline and perturbed emissions are input to the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ version 4.7.1) for a full accounting of time- and space-varying air quality changes associated with the 17% PV scenario. These results offer a high-value opportunity to evaluate the reduced-form AVoided Emissions and geneRation Tool (AVERT), while using AVERT to test the sensitivity of results to changing base-years and levels of solar integration. We find that average NO_X and SO₂ emissions across the region decrease 20% and 15%, respectively. PM_2.5 concentrations decreased on average 4.7% across the Eastern U.S., with nitrate (NO₃⁻) PM_2.5 decreasing 3.7% and sulfate (SO₄²⁻) PM_2.5 decreasing 9.1%. In the five largest cities in the region, we find that the most polluted days show the most significant PM_2.5 decrease under the 17% PV generation scenario, and that the greatest benefits are accrued to cities in or near the Ohio River Valley. We find summer health benefits from reduced PM_2.5 exposure estimated as 1424 avoided premature deaths (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 284 deaths, 2 732 deaths) or a health savings of $13.1 billion (95% CI: $0.6 billion, $43.9 billion) These results highlight the potential for renewable energy as a tool for air quality managers to support current and future health-based air quality regulations.