Probabilistic Approach to Quantifying the Contribution of Variable Generation and Transmission to System Reliability: Preprint

The increasing electrical load served by variable generation (VG), such as wind and solar energy, in the United States and many other countries has stimulated an interesting line of research to better quantify the capacity value of these resources. Methods applied traditionally to thermal units based on their average outage rates do not apply to VG because of their uncertain and non-dispatchablenature. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation's Integration of Variable Generation Task Force recently released a report that highlighted the need to develop and benchmark underlying loss-of-load expectation and related metrics that reasonably and fairly calculate the contribution to planning reserves, or capacity value, of solar and wind power. As the fraction of generation comingfrom VG becomes more significant, their estimated capacity value will have a larger impact on system planning. In this paper, we provide a method to include VG in traditional probabilistic-based adequacy methods. This method has been implemented in the Renewable Energy Probabilistic Resource Assessment tool developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Through an example based on the U.S. Western Interconnection, this method is applied to assess the effect that transmission can have on resource adequacy. We also analyze the interactions between available transmission and capacity value for VG.