Probabilistic Forecast of All-Sky Solar Radiation Using Enhanced WRF-Solar: Preprint

Ju-Hye Kim, Pedro Jimenez, Jimy Dudhia, Jaemo Yang, Manajit Sengupta, Yu Xie

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Abstract

This study presents enhancements of the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar) to provide probabilistic forecasts of solar radiation. Our approach builds ensemble WRF-Solar runs by introducing stochastic perturbations of variables that produce the largest uncertainties in predicting surface irradiance and clouds. The key variables are identified using tangent linear sensitivity analysis of six physics packages responsible for all-sky irradiance variability. An optimal strategy to stochastically perturb the selected variables is developed and applied to WRF-Solar to generate ensemble members for day-ahead solar prediction. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to validate the ensemble forecast at arbitrary locations on the model grid. Preliminary results indicate that the proposed technique can potentially produce WRF-Solar ensembles providing reliable information of solar prediction uncertainty. This study describes the implemented methodology and initial results as well as future research to improve ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts with WRF-Solar.
Original languageAmerican English
Number of pages6
StatePublished - 2020
Event37th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition (EU PVSEC 2020) -
Duration: 7 Sep 202011 Sep 2020

Conference

Conference37th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition (EU PVSEC 2020)
Period7/09/2011/09/20

NREL Publication Number

  • NREL/CP-5D00-77693

Keywords

  • all-sky
  • forecasting
  • probabilistic
  • radiation
  • solar
  • Weather Research and Forecasting model
  • WRF

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