Probabilistic Resilience of DER Systems - A Simulation Assisted Optimization Approach

Kate Anderson, Sakshi Mishra

Research output: NRELPresentation


Energy systems resilience is becoming increasingly important as the frequency of major grid outages increases. In this work, we present a methodology to optimize a behind-the-meter distributed energy resource system to sustain a site's critical loads during a pre-defined outage period. With the fixed system design, we then propose an outage simulation approach to estimate the resilience potential of the DER system to sustain loads beyond the fixed outage period - a yearlong resilience performance analysis. We apply statistical analysis to assess the system's resilience performance over a broader parametric problem space on an hourly, monthly, and yearly basis. We demonstrate the impact of the pre-defined outage period on the resilience performance through a case study. Results show that the probability of surviving a random outage of a given duration changes from 20% to 95% when the outage is modeled for a weekday instead of a weekend for the given load-profile.
Original languageAmerican English
Number of pages6
StatePublished - 2021

Publication series

NamePresented at the IEEE Power & Energy Society Innovative Smart Grid Technologies, 16-18 February 2021

NREL Publication Number

  • NREL/PR-7A40-78910


  • DER systems
  • energy resilience
  • outage simulation
  • resilience quantification


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