Projecting Solar Photovoltaic Efficiencies from Lab to Market

Brian Hodge, Iris Beuzekom, Han Slootweg

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaperpeer-review

5 Scopus Citations


The future is uncertain and forecasting it is difficult. Yet to implement energy policies aimed at sustainable development, it is imperative to determine future energy scenarios. This requires forecasting the development of all relevant generation technologies, including the conversion efficiency of solar photovoltaics. Using historical data, a proven development formula and data on the lag between lab and market, efficiency projections up to 2050 are made for c-Si, CdTe, CIGS, 3- and 4 junction, perovskite, and quantum dot solar cells. The projected efficiencies of the first three, older technologies do not change significantly. The last four, newer technologies could make great leaps in efficiency and increase their market potential, if R&D efforts continue.

Original languageAmerican English
Number of pages6
StatePublished - 27 Jun 2018
Event2018 IEEE International Energy Conference, ENERGYCON 2018 - Limassol, Cyprus
Duration: 3 Jun 20187 Jun 2018


Conference2018 IEEE International Energy Conference, ENERGYCON 2018

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 IEEE.

NREL Publication Number

  • NREL/CP-5D00-71109


  • conversion efficiency
  • forecasting
  • photovoltaics
  • PV
  • solar


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