Quantifying Risk in an Uncertain Future: The Evolution of Resource Adequacy

Derek Stenclik, Aaron Bloom, Wesley Cole, Gordon Stephen, Armand Acevedo, Rob Gramlich, Chris Dent, Nick Schlag, Michael Milligan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

13 Scopus Citations


As our power grids transition toward a decarbonized energy mix, ensuring reliability and provision of grid services remains paramount. The power system has always been heavily influenced by the weather - extreme temperatures determine the timing of peak demand, winter cold snaps can limit natural gas supply, gas turbine reliability and output are affected by ambient conditions, and hydro output varies seasonally and annually. However, as the grid increasingly relies on variable renewable energy (VRE), like wind and solar, the attention to reliability and weather conditions is increasingly important. The implications of changing reliability are large. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) rolling blackouts from earlier this year impacted millions of people across the state and could be seen from space (Figure 1).

Original languageAmerican English
Pages (from-to)29-36
Number of pages8
JournalIEEE Power and Energy Magazine
Issue number6
StatePublished - 2021

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2003-2012 IEEE.

NREL Publication Number

  • NREL/JA-5C00-80898


  • hydraulic turbines
  • power grids
  • power system reliability
  • renewable energy sources
  • resource adequacy
  • timing
  • wind
  • wind energy


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