SAE Government-Industry - Heavy-Duty Policy: Panel Discussion (G203)

Research output: NRELPresentation


Medium- and heavy-duty vehicles are 21% of US transportation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and a major source of air pollution. In this talk to present some results exploring how the total cost of driving (TCD) of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), including battery electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (EVs and FCEVs), could evolve under alternative scenarios. Results show that with continued improvements in vehicles and fuels, ZEVs can rapidly become viable, potentially reaching TCD parity or better compared to diesel vehicles by 2035 for all market segments. For heavy long-haul trucks, EVs become competitive on a TCD basis at charging costs below $0.18/kWh, while FCEVs become competitive on a TCD basis at hydrogen costs below $5/kg. A full transition to ZEV sales by 2035 results in 65% emissions reductions by 2050 compared to 2019 without supportive policies. Incentives such as the Inflation Reduction Act vehicle purchase credits further accelerate ZEV TCD competitiveness with major adoption opportunities over the next five years.
Original languageAmerican English
Number of pages12
StatePublished - 2024

Publication series

NamePresented at the SAE Government/Industry Meeting, 16-18 January 2024, Washington, D.C.

NREL Publication Number

  • NREL/PR-5400-88577


  • electric vehicles
  • hydrogen
  • sustainable fuels
  • sustainable mobility
  • zero emissions vehicles


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