Statistical Analysis of the Phase 3 Emissions Data Collected in the EPAct/V2/E89 Program: January 7, 2010 - July 6, 2012

Phase 3 of the EPAct/V2/E-89 Program investigated the effects of 27 program fuels and 15 program vehicles on exhaust emissions and fuel economy. All vehicles were tested over the California Unified Driving Cycle (LA-92) at 75 degrees F. The program fuels differed on T50, T90, ethanol, Reid vapor pressure, and aromatics. The vehicles tested were new, low-mileage 2008 model year Tier 2 vehicles. Atotal of 956 test runs were made. Comprehensive statistical modeling and analyses were conducted on methane, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, fuel economy, non-methane hydrocarbons, non-methane organic gases, oxides of nitrogen, particulate matter, and total hydrocarbons. In general, model fits determined that emissions and fuel economy were complicated by functions of the five fuel parameters.An extensive evaluation of alternative model fits produced a number of competing model fits. Many of these alternative fits produce similar estimates of mean emissions for the 27 program fuels but should be carefully evaluated for use with emerging fuels with combinations of fuel parameters not included here. The program includes detailed databases on each of the 27 program fuels on each of the15 vehicles and on each of the vehicles on each of the program fuels.