Supply and Demand Constraints on Future PV Power in the USA: Preprint

Wesley Cole, Paul Basore

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper


An economic analysis with a defined uncertainty range is presented that considers whether the future deployment of utility-scale PV (UPV) systems in the USA will be limited by the supply of PV modules or by market demand for these systems. An analysis of global PV module manufacturing growth and the fraction of modules produced that will be available for installation in the USA gives a plausible range of cumulative capacity for the UPV segment of 50 - 170 GW in 2030 and 60 - 500 GW in 2040. A parallel analysis of the future demand for UPV systems in the USA indicates a plausible range for cumulative capacity of 80 - 230 GW in 2030 and 150 - 530 GW in 2040. The plausible ranges for supply and demand substantially overlap in both 2030 and 2040, suggesting that neither supply nor demand is more likely to limit PV deployment in the USA. Consequently, mechanisms for enabling growth in both supply and demand can benefit efforts intended to increase the deployment of PV in the USA.
Original languageAmerican English
Number of pages6
StatePublished - 2018
Event2017 IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference - Washington, D.C.
Duration: 25 Jun 201730 Jun 2017


Conference2017 IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference
CityWashington, D.C.

Bibliographical note

See NREL/CP-6A20-73943 for paper as published in IEEE proceedings

NREL Publication Number

  • NREL/CP-6A20-68526


  • capacity expansion
  • photovoltaics
  • ReEDS
  • strategy
  • supply chain
  • USA
  • utility-scale


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