Supporting Analysis and Assessments Quality Metrics: Utility Market Sector

In FY96, NREL was asked to coordinate all analysis tasks so that in FY97 these tasks will be part of an integrated analysis agenda that will begin to define a 5-15 year R&D roadmap and portfolio for the DOE Hydrogen Program. The purpose of the Supporting Analysis and Assessments task at NREL is to provide this coordination and conduct specific analysis tasks. One of these tasks is to prepare theQuality Metrics (QM) for the Program as part of the overall QM effort at DOE/EERE. The Hydrogen Program is one of 39 program planning units conducting QM, a process begun in FY94 to assess benefits/costs of DOE/EERE programs. The purpose of QM is to inform decisionmaking during budget formulation process by describing the expected outcomes of programs during the budget request process. QM isexpected to establish first step toward merit-based budget formulation and allow DOE/EERE to get 'most bang for its (R&D) buck.' In FY96 NREL coordinated a QM team that prepared a preliminary QM for the utility market sector. In the electricity supply sector, the QM analysis shows hydrogen fuel cells capturing 5% (or 22 GW) of the total market of 390 GW of new capacity additions through 2020.Hydrogen consumption in the utility sector increases from 0.009 Quads in 2005 to 0.4 Quads in 2020. Hydrogen fuel cells are projected to displace over 0.6 Quads of primary energy in 2020. In future work, we will assess the market for decentralized, on-site generation, develop cost credits for distributed generation benefits (such as deferral of transmission and distribution investments,uninterruptible power service), cost credits for by-products such as heat and potable water, cost credits for environmental benefits (reduction of criteria air pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions), compete different fuel cell technologies against each other for market share, and begin to address economic benefits, especially employment. NREL will also develop an integrated QM analysis forthe transportation market in cooperation with the DOE Office of Transportation Technologies.