TY - JOUR
T1 - Technology Progress and Clean Vehicle Policies on Fleet Turnover and Equity: Insights from Household Vehicle Fleet Micro-Simulations with ATLAS
AU - Jin, Ling
AU - Jackson, Connor
AU - Wang, Yuhan
AU - Chen, Qianmiao
AU - Ho, Tin
AU - Spurlock, C.
AU - Brooker, Aaron
AU - Holden, Jacob
AU - Gonder, Jeffrey
AU - Bouzaghrane, Mohamed
AU - Sun, Bingrong
AU - Sharda, Shivam
AU - Garikapati, Venu
AU - Wenzel, Tom
AU - Caicedo, Juan
PY - 2024
Y1 - 2024
N2 - This paper documents the design and application of ATLAS (Automobile and Technology Lifecycle-Based ASsignment), a comprehensive household vehicle transaction and technology adoption micro-simulator in the San Francisco Bay Area. ATLAS evolves the fleet mix of individual households by simulating the vehicle transaction and choice decisions in response to co-evolving demographics, land use, and vehicle technology simulations. While most existing literature has focused on the aggregate clean vehicle uptake, this paper differentiates distributional effects and decomposes the underlying mechanisms across heterogeneous sub-populations of households. Using scenarios and sensitivity simulations that vary vehicle technology and policy assumptions, we find that Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs) penetrate into higher income groups at a faster rate than into lower income groups, which is intuitive and aligns with expectations. Interestingly, the relative income disparity in ZEV ownership shrinks over time across all scenarios, with a ZEV mandate coupled with declining battery cost leading to the greatest reduction in disparity of ZEV ownership by 2050. Federal, state, and local financial incentives influence the redistribution of ZEV uptake across income groups and contribute to narrowing income disparity. Vehicle transaction frequency and new versus used market dynamics are found to be important factors contributing to the income disparity.
AB - This paper documents the design and application of ATLAS (Automobile and Technology Lifecycle-Based ASsignment), a comprehensive household vehicle transaction and technology adoption micro-simulator in the San Francisco Bay Area. ATLAS evolves the fleet mix of individual households by simulating the vehicle transaction and choice decisions in response to co-evolving demographics, land use, and vehicle technology simulations. While most existing literature has focused on the aggregate clean vehicle uptake, this paper differentiates distributional effects and decomposes the underlying mechanisms across heterogeneous sub-populations of households. Using scenarios and sensitivity simulations that vary vehicle technology and policy assumptions, we find that Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs) penetrate into higher income groups at a faster rate than into lower income groups, which is intuitive and aligns with expectations. Interestingly, the relative income disparity in ZEV ownership shrinks over time across all scenarios, with a ZEV mandate coupled with declining battery cost leading to the greatest reduction in disparity of ZEV ownership by 2050. Federal, state, and local financial incentives influence the redistribution of ZEV uptake across income groups and contribute to narrowing income disparity. Vehicle transaction frequency and new versus used market dynamics are found to be important factors contributing to the income disparity.
KW - agent based model
KW - household vehicle choice model
KW - long-term forecasting
KW - purchasing incentives
KW - used vehicle market
KW - zero emission vehicle mandate
U2 - 10.1080/03081060.2024.2353784
DO - 10.1080/03081060.2024.2353784
M3 - Article
SN - 0308-1060
VL - 47
JO - Transportation Planning and Technology
JF - Transportation Planning and Technology
IS - 8
ER -