The Value of Day-Ahead Solar Power Forecasting Improvement

Carlo Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Benjamin Botor, Anthony R. Florita, Caroline Draxl, Siyuan Lu, Hendrik F. Hamann, Bri Mathias Hodge

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

153 Scopus Citations

Abstract

The value of day-ahead solar power forecasting improvements was analyzed by simulating the operation of the Independent System Operator - New England (ISO-NE) power system under a range of scenarios with varying solar power penetrations and solar power forecasting improvements. The results showed how the integration of solar power decreased operational electricity generation costs, by decreasing fuel and variable operation and maintenance costs, while decreasing start and shutdown costs of fossil fueled conventional generators. Solar power forecasting improvements changed the impacts that the uncertainty of solar power has on bulk power system operations; electricity generation from the fast start and lower efficiency power plants, ramping of all generators, start and shutdown costs, and solar power curtailment were all reduced. These impacts led to a reduction in overall operational electricity generation costs in the system that translates into an annual economic value for improving solar power forecasting.

Original languageAmerican English
Pages (from-to)192-203
Number of pages12
JournalSolar Energy
Volume129
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 May 2016

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 Elsevier Ltd.

NREL Publication Number

  • NREL/JA-5D00-65992

Keywords

  • Bulk power system operations
  • Solar grid integration
  • Solar power forecasting

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