The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System to Provide Solar Irradiance Probabilistic Forecasts

Ju-Hye Kim, Pedro A. Jimenez, Manajit Sengupta, Jaemo Yang, Jimy Dudhia, Stefano Alessandrini, Yu Xie

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaperpeer-review

5 Scopus Citations

Abstract

In this study, we introduce the recently developed WRF-Solar Ensemble System (WRF-Solar EPS) and a calibration method. The performances of forecast models are evaluated using the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) observational analysis for day-ahead solar irradiance predictions. The results demonstrate that the ensemble forecast improves the quality of the forecasts by taking into account the uncertainty of each ensemble member. The Analog Ensemble (AnEn) calibration contributed to the reduction of positive bias and an overall improvement in the probabilistic attributes such as reliability and statistical consistency.

Original languageAmerican English
Pages1233-1235
Number of pages3
DOIs
StatePublished - 20 Jun 2021
Event48th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, PVSC 2021 - Fort Lauderdale, United States
Duration: 20 Jun 202125 Jun 2021

Conference

Conference48th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, PVSC 2021
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityFort Lauderdale
Period20/06/2125/06/21

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 IEEE.

NREL Publication Number

  • NREL/CP-5D00-80399

Keywords

  • Analog ensemble
  • day-ahead forecast
  • ensemble forecast
  • NSRDB
  • probabilistic forecast
  • stochastic perturbation
  • WRF-Solar

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