Abstract
In this study, we introduce the recently developed WRF-Solar Ensemble System (WRF-Solar EPS) and a calibration method. The performances of forecast models are evaluated using the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) observational analysis for day-ahead solar irradiance predictions. The results demonstrate that the ensemble forecast improves the quality of the forecasts by taking into account the uncertainty of each ensemble member. The Analog Ensemble (AnEn) calibration contributed to the reduction of positive bias and an overall improvement in the probabilistic attributes such as reliability and statistical consistency.
Original language | American English |
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Pages | 1233-1235 |
Number of pages | 3 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - 20 Jun 2021 |
Event | 48th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, PVSC 2021 - Fort Lauderdale, United States Duration: 20 Jun 2021 → 25 Jun 2021 |
Conference
Conference | 48th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, PVSC 2021 |
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Country/Territory | United States |
City | Fort Lauderdale |
Period | 20/06/21 → 25/06/21 |
Bibliographical note
Publisher Copyright:© 2021 IEEE.
NREL Publication Number
- NREL/CP-5D00-80399
Keywords
- Analog ensemble
- day-ahead forecast
- ensemble forecast
- NSRDB
- probabilistic forecast
- stochastic perturbation
- WRF-Solar