The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System to Provide Solar Irradiance Probabilistic Forecasts

Ju-Hye Kim, Pedro A. Jimenez Munoz, Manajit Sengupta, Jaemo Yang, Jimy Dudhia, Stefano Alessandrini, Yu Xie

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

15 Scopus Citations


In this study, we introduce the recently developed WRF-solar ensemble prediction system and a calibration method. The performances of forecast models are evaluated using the National Solar Radiation Database observational analysis for day-Ahead solar irradiance predictions. The results demonstrate that the ensemble forecast improves the quality of the forecasts by considering the uncertainty of each ensemble member. The analog ensemble calibration contributed to the reduction of positive bias and an overall improvement in the probabilistic attributes, such as reliability and statistical consistency.

Original languageAmerican English
Pages (from-to)141-144
Number of pages4
JournalIEEE Journal of Photovoltaics
Issue number1
StatePublished - 2022

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2011-2012 IEEE.

NREL Publication Number

  • NREL/JA-5D00-81326


  • Analog ensemble (AnEn)
  • day-Ahead forecast
  • ensemble forecast
  • National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB)
  • probabilistic forecast
  • stochastic perturbation
  • weather research and forecasting (WRF) solar


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