Transportation Electrification Load Development For A Renewable Future Analysis: Preprint

The transition to electricity as a transportation fuel will create a new load for electricity generation. A set of regional hourly load profiles for electrified vehicles was developed for the 2010 to 2050 timeframe. The transportation electrical energy was determined using regional population forecast data, historical vehicle per capita data, and market penetration growth functions to determinethe number of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) in each analysis region. Market saturation scenarios of 30% and 50% of sales of PEVs consuming on average approx. 6 kWh per day were considered. PEV aggregate load profiles from previous work were combined with vehicle population data to generate hourly loads on a regional basis. A transition from consumer-controlled charging towardutility-controlled charging was assumed such that by 2050 approximately 45% of the transportation energy demands could be delivered across four daily time slices under optimal control from the utility?s perspective. This electrified transportation analysis resulted in an estimate for both the flexible load and fixed load shapes on a regional basis that may evolve under two PEV market penetrationscenarios.