Uncertainty Quantification of Bifacial Performance Modeling: Preprint

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper


Analysis on uncertainty in the annual energy of PV systems that can be attributed to parameters of particular importance to bifacial PV modules is presented. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate the effect of uncertain module bifaciality factors, module transmission fractions, albedo values, and ground clearance. The analyses cover a wide spectrum of potential PV array archetypes through variation of installation parameters. The results of the Monte Carlo analysis reveal that the uncertainty is largely dependent on albedo uncertainty, but more simulations are needed to identify trends across system archetypes. The simulations are aimed at attributing an annual energy uncertainty factor for bifacial considerations that can be applied in post-processing of project probability of exceedance analysis.
Original languageAmerican English
Number of pages8
StatePublished - 2022
Event49th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference (PVSC 49) - Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Duration: 5 Jun 202210 Jun 2022


Conference49th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference (PVSC 49)
CityPhiladelphia, Pennsylvania

Bibliographical note

See NREL/CP-7A40-85066 for paper as published in proceedings

NREL Publication Number

  • NREL/CP-7A40-83111


  • energy modeling
  • photovoltaic
  • uncertainty


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