Uncertainty Quantification of PV Annual Energy Estimates in the System Advisor Model

Matthew Prilliman, Cliff Hansen, Janine Keith, Steven Janzou

Research output: NRELPoster


This work will detail a proposed uncertainty quantification method for PV annual energy estimates. Motivations behind the proposed methodology will be discussed, including the frequent underperformance of installed PV systems to calculated probability of exceedance values being seen in industry. A methodology in which uncertainty factors correlated to different parts of the PV annual energy model chain are applied to annual energy estimates in conjunction with uncertainty from inter-annual solar resource variability will be described. The application of this methodology in the System Advisor Model (SAM) will also be discussed with example cases and graphical outputs of the probability of exceedance data calculated for the PV annual energy estimates.
Original languageAmerican English
StatePublished - 2023

Publication series

NamePresented at the PV Performance Modeling Collaborative (PVPMC), 9-10 May 2023, Salt Lake City, Utah

NREL Publication Number

  • NREL/PO-7A40-86169


  • energy modeling
  • photovoltaics
  • PV
  • uncertainty


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