Abstract
The pre-construction energy generation of a wind farm (P50) is difficult to estimate and evaluate. This paper presents a methodology to measure the accuracy of the p50 prediction, which we call the Historical Validation Survey (HVS), for several wind farms in the continental United States. Our results indicate that there is a bias between predicted and measured energy, even when controlling for factors like grid curtailment and resource variability. We also find that our results depend on the assumptions we make during analysis, which we quantify with a sensitivity analysis. This method allows the estimation of uncertainty we have in our findings. When we account for reasonable ranges of model assumptions, we find that, in the most optimistic case, there is still a bulk -5.5% bias when estimating pre-construction energy generation. When controlling for grid curtailment this number reduces to a range of -3.5 to -4.5%.
Original language | American English |
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Article number | Article No. 062009 |
Number of pages | 9 |
Journal | Journal of Physics: Conference Series |
Volume | 1037 |
Issue number | 6 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - 19 Jun 2018 |
Event | 7th Science of Making Torque from Wind, TORQUE 2018 - Milan, Italy Duration: 20 Jun 2018 → 22 Jun 2018 |
Bibliographical note
Publisher Copyright:© Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.
NREL Publication Number
- NREL/JA-2C00-71398
Keywords
- energy generation
- energy production
- wind farm